Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited and Other Co-Issuers issuer summary: Public information-based credit review of CGRNEG 7.50% due 2033

Prepared: 2026-05-12
Issuer: Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited and Other Co-Issuers
Substantive credit exposure: Continuum Restricted Group 2 / CGRNEG co-issuer group
Bond covered: U.S.$650,000,000 7.50% Senior Secured Notes due 26 June 2033

1. Business Snapshot and Recent Developments

Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited and Other Co-Issuers should be read not as an ordinary standalone operating company, but as a U.S. dollar-denominated, project-finance-like credit backed by a portfolio restricted group of Indian renewable energy assets. It is not a pure project-finance bond backed by a single project, but a structure that pools multiple operating SPV assets into one debt-service pool. Although Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited appears prominently as the named issuer of the bond, the center of credit analysis is not that company on a standalone basis, but Continuum Restricted Group 2, in which eight Indian SPVs are co-issuers and share repayment resources through cross guarantees, cash pooling, account waterfalls, DSRA, and mandatory cash sweep.

This report therefore analyzes the credit not as an unsecured corporate bond of the wider Continuum Group, but primarily through the operating renewable assets, offtake contracts, receivables, debt structure, liquidity, and the DSCR / refinancing risk viewed by rating agencies for the restricted group that forms the repayment source for CGRNEG 7.50% due 2033. Growth plans, capital injections, and IPO-related events at the parent companies, Continuum Green Energy Holdings Limited and Continuum Green Energy Limited, are important background factors. However, principal and interest payments on the CGRNEG bond fundamentally depend on the generation assets and contracted cash flows within the restricted group. Parent company enterprise value or growth story should therefore not be treated as directly equivalent to bondholder recovery capacity.

The bond was issued on 26 June 2024 and listed on the Global Securities Market of India International Exchange from 28 June 2024. The India INX listing notice shows an issue size of US$650mn, coupon of 7.50%, maturity of 26 June 2033, ISINs of US89629LAA52 for 144A and USY8987LAA45 for Reg S, and ratings at listing of Moody's Ba2 and Fitch BB+. What has been confirmed here is the rating at listing; this review has not directly confirmed from the original rating agency materials that there had been no rating change as of 12 May 2026. The IFSCA ESG-labelled debt list also includes the bond as a US$650mn GREEN bond listed in FY2024-25.

The most important public update after issuance is the special purpose combined financial statements of Continuum Restricted Group 2 for the year ended March 2025. According to that material, operating capacity at end-March 2025 was 990.8MW, with C&I and discom FIT accounting for 62.7% and 37.3%, respectively. Generation in FY2025 was 1,892 million kWh, down from 1,952 million kWh in FY2024. Revenue also declined, affected by generation volume and tariff factors, but receivable days improved from 37 days at end-March 2024 to 29 days at end-March 2025. This is important for bondholders, who need to assess not only the earnings power of generation assets but also the quality of cash conversion.

Another important point in FY2025 is that the U.S. dollar bond issuance in June 2024 substantially replaced legacy INR-denominated NCDs to the parent and related companies, as well as bank and financial institution borrowings at certain SPVs. The public financial statements explain that the proceeds from the 7.50% U.S. dollar senior secured notes were used to redeem the 8.75% INR NCDs issued to Continuum Energy Levanter Pte. Ltd., and to repay existing term loans at Kutch Windfarm Development Private Limited and Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited, among others. As a result, the legal, currency, and maturity profile of debt changed materially, and the issues investors should focus on shifted from the repayment capacity for short-term bank borrowings to coupon payments on long-term foreign-currency fixed-rate debt, hedging costs, cash sweep, and the residual refinancing requirement in 2033.

Group-level news in 2026 includes additional investment from Just Climate, transfers of equity stakes among shareholders, and the submission of a draft red herring prospectus to SEBI. These developments are relevant to the wider group’s capital access and growth funding. However, in CGRNEG analysis, the first priority is to assess cash flows, debt service, distribution restrictions, and external creditor protections within the restricted group. The parent company’s continued access to funding is a complementary positive, but should not be placed on the same footing as an explicit parent company guarantee or sovereign guarantee for the bond.

2. Industry Position and Franchise Strength

CGRNEG’s business platform is distinctive within the Indian renewable energy market because it includes a large share of C&I power sales to commercial and industrial customers. Many Indian renewable issuers rely heavily on long-term fixed-price PPAs with central government-related offtakers or state distribution companies, but the Continuum Group has used supply to C&I customers as a core differentiating factor. C&I offtake typically has shorter contract tenors than government-related PPAs and is exposed to changes in tariff regimes and open access charges. On the other hand, receivable collection is generally better than for state distribution companies, and customer diversification can be more effective.

In its February 2025 rating rationale, CRISIL identifies as a credit support the fact that the 990.8MW capacity of the CGRNEG restricted group is effectively fully contracted, with approximately 63% serving C&I customers and approximately 37% serving state distribution companies. Among state distribution companies, MSEDCL accounts for approximately 20% of total capacity and MPPMCL for approximately 17%. For C&I offtake, the portfolio is diversified across more than approximately 100 customers through third-party or group captive arrangements, and no single customer is said to account for more than 10% of C&I capacity. Reprinted Fitch information states that there are more than 130 C&I customers. Although the customer-count descriptions differ across sources, the consistent point is that this is not a project concentrated on a single customer, but a structure that uses C&I customer diversification as a credit enhancement.

This C&I-focused business platform cannot be assessed in one direction as simply “better than government offtakers” or “weaker because the customers are private-sector entities.” State distribution company PPAs provide long-term, fixed-price, and institutional visibility, but payment delays by state distribution companies have been a recurring issue in India. C&I customers offer relatively faster cash collection, but credit quality is affected by contract renewal, customer termination, changes in industrial power tariffs and open access charges, and the relative cost advantage of renewable power procurement. CGRNEG’s credit profile needs to be viewed as a combination of these two types of risk.

Geographically, CRISIL describes the CGRNEG restricted group as diversified across four states: Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. Based on CRISIL, the capacity mix is approximately 40% Gujarat, approximately 23% Tamil Nadu, approximately 20% Maharashtra, and approximately 17% Madhya Pradesh. Wind and solar resources in India vary significantly by region. If a portfolio is concentrated in a single state, resource risk, transmission constraints, regulatory changes, and discom payment delays can have simultaneous effects. Four-state diversification is a credit support in that sense. However, even with diversification, a high wind share means annual wind shortfalls can affect multiple projects, so capacity diversification alone does not eliminate PLF risk.

Technologically, CGRNEG is a mix of wind and solar. CRISIL describes the portfolio as 68% wind and 32% solar DC capacity, while reprinted Fitch information refers to 78% wind and 22% solar. This may reflect differences in AC/DC definitions, reference dates, or presentation in the source materials, so this report primarily uses CRISIL’s February 2025 material and the FY2025 financial statements. In any case, the bond is not backed by a pure solar portfolio, and the large contribution from wind is central to the risk profile. Wind has significant seasonality and year-to-year variability, and in recent years several Indian renewable projects have recorded generation below P90 levels. Solar is relatively more predictable, but is still affected by irradiation, degradation, equipment availability, and grid availability.

On the Continuum Group’s market position, S&P Global Ratings, when upgrading the parent company to BB- in December 2024, stated that the company focuses on India’s C&I renewable energy market and that the group’s total operating capacity had reached 2.24GW as of early December 2024. This is not a rating on the CGRNEG restricted group itself, but it is useful supplementary information for understanding the sponsor / group’s development and operating capabilities. Although the credit quality of the CGRNEG bond is not the parent company rating itself, the fact that the parent has meaningful scale and a track record in India’s C&I renewable market is indirectly relevant to customer acquisition, O&M, regulatory management, and funding access.

3. Segment Assessment

The repayment sources for the CGRNEG restricted group need to be analyzed by asset type, namely wind and solar, and by customer type, namely C&I customers and state distribution companies. Public materials do not provide complete project-by-project EBITDA or contract-by-contract tariff details, so the following is a provisional assessment based on capacity mix, generation volume, receivables, and the qualitative assessments provided by rating agencies.

The credit attraction of C&I offtake is that the collection cycle is shorter than for state distribution companies, and customer diversification reduces dependence on a single offtaker’s payment behavior. CRISIL states that the capacity-weighted average PPA tenor for C&I projects is approximately nine years, with an average lock-in period of two to three years. This is shorter than traditional 25-year fixed-price PPAs and does not fully lock in revenue for the entire life of the 2033 bond. On the other hand, because C&I tariffs are linked to state industrial retail tariffs and changes in open access charges, and because the structure offers customers a certain discount, this is not the same as fully merchant power exposure.

The main risk in sales to state distribution companies is the payment delay history at MSEDCL and MPPMCL. According to CRISIL, there have been periods in the past when receivable days for MSEDCL and MPPMCL expanded to more than 400 days. However, payment behavior has improved after the introduction of the late payment surcharge rule. For MPPMCL, a schedule has been indicated for repayment of past dues through monthly instalments over 40 months, and older arrears from MSEDCL are also described as having been reduced. The FY2025 financial statements also show that discom receivables declined from INR1,286mn at end-March 2024 to INR613mn at end-March 2025.

In terms of generation performance, generation exported in FY2025 was 1,892 million kWh, down 3.1% from 1,952 million kWh in FY2024. The decline in revenue reflected not only lower generation but also lower fuel surcharge, the end of the GBI eligibility period, and lower IREC income. Weighted average plant availability in FY2025 was 97.3%, internal grid availability was 98.2%, and external grid availability was 99.7%, indicating high mechanical and grid availability. However, because generation volume depends on wind speed and irradiation, high availability does not necessarily translate into higher electricity sales. This is one of the difficult features of renewable project bonds.

As a segment-level assessment, C&I offtake is supportive in terms of receivable collection and tariff levels, but renewal and regulatory tariff risks remain. Discom offtake provides longer contract terms and institutional visibility, but the memory of past payment delays remains. Wind can be the core of higher return and C&I supply, but P90 underperformance can affect DSCR directly. Solar complements predictability, but its capacity share does not fully dilute the portfolio’s wind resource risk. CGRNEG’s credit quality depends on how far these conflicting characteristics can be absorbed through cash pooling and distribution restrictions.

4. Financial Profile and Analysis

The FY2025 combined financial statements are an important first-year document for assessing CGRNEG’s financial profile. Because the issuer refinanced existing debt through a U.S. dollar bond issuance in June 2024, FY2025 is a transition year in which old debt and new debt coexisted. Comparisons with FY2024 are therefore not a simple like-for-like comparison. However, by confirming the levels of generation, revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, external interest, cash, borrowings, and receivables, it is possible to assess bondholders’ broad repayment capacity. Public combined financial statements allow stable comparison mainly for FY2024 and FY2025, and therefore fall short of the three-year or longer time series that would be desirable in a standard issuer summary. This limitation is not filled by assumption; the analysis is treated as a two-year comparison.

The first point to read from this table is that FY2025 financials have the nature of “stable high-margin assets, but with limited headroom against generation shortfalls and interest burden.” Adjusted EBITDA margin remains high in the high-80% range, reflecting the fixed-cost structure of renewable generation assets and adjustments under the company’s definition. More important from a credit perspective is how many times Adjusted EBITDA covers external borrowing costs. Based on the public figures, the internally calculated FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA / borrowing cost to external parties was approximately 1.23x, down from approximately 1.54x in FY2024.

This 1.23x figure is not the same as the DSCR used by rating agencies. DSCR includes principal amortization, MCS, DSRA, distribution restrictions, hedging, taxes, account balances, and contractual adjustments, so the ability to service debt should not be concluded solely from simple interest coverage based on public P&L data. In addition, FY2025 was a transition year involving the U.S. dollar bond issuance and repayment of legacy debt, and external borrowing costs include U.S. dollar bond interest, hedge-related expenses, non-cash FX-related items, and refinancing-related costs. This 1.23x should therefore be viewed not as a steady-state covenant DSCR but as a P&L-based warning indicator. Even so, it is important that accounting-based headroom narrowed in a period when generation volume declined and external borrowing costs increased.

FY2025 operating cash flow was INR8,223mn, slightly lower than INR8,479mn in FY2024. This reflects working capital improvement partly offsetting the deterioration in loss before tax. The decline in receivables from INR1,508mn to INR820mn is positive for a renewable energy project with discom risk. In particular, the decline in MSEDCL balances from INR326mn at end-March 2024 to INR169mn at end-March 2025, and the decline in MPPMCL / MP Discom balances from INR960mn to INR446mn, indicate that historical payment delay risk had at least eased as of end-FY2025.

However, the fact that FY2025 PAT turned positive at INR152mn should not be overread as a credit improvement. The company recorded a loss before tax of INR1,620mn, and tax effects made a large contribution. The company explains that, following the U.S. dollar bond issuance, restrictions on the tax deductibility of past related-party interest were removed and a deferred tax asset benefit was recognized. Therefore, the positive PAT does not directly imply a structural improvement in generation cash flow or interest-paying capacity.

Financial supports are, first, high EBITDA generation capacity; second, improved receivable collection; and third, end-period cash and bank balances of INR5,201mn. Constraints are that total debt remains large, internally calculated net debt / Adjusted EBITDA is high at approximately 6.4x, coverage of external borrowing costs declined in FY2025, hedge-related and non-cash FX costs associated with the U.S. dollar bond depress P&L, and the large residual refinancing requirement in 2033 cannot be adequately verified from the public financial statements alone.

5. Structural Considerations for Bondholders

The most important issue for CGRNEG bondholders is how the eight SPVs form a single repayment pool. CRISIL treats eight entities as consolidated entities: Bothe Windfarm Development Pvt Ltd, DJ Energy Pvt Ltd, Uttar Urja Projects Pvt Ltd, Watsun Infrabuild Pvt Ltd, Trinethra Wind and Hydro Power Pvt Ltd, Renewables Trinethra Pvt Ltd, Kutch Windfarm Development Private Limited, and Continuum Trinethra Renewables Pvt Ltd. These form a co-obligor group, and because they have cross guarantees, cash pooling, a common sponsor, common management and treasury, and the same business line, CRISIL assesses credit risk on a group basis rather than by individual SPV.

This structure is favorable for bondholders in that generation underperformance at a single project or payment delays by certain discoms can be absorbed by surplus cash from the overall group. CRISIL explains that, after each SPV pays interest and mandatory amortization, surplus cash becomes available within the group. Distributions are also restricted until operating expenses, statutory costs, debt service, MCS, DSRA, and other requirements are met at all SPVs. This constrains the parent company or sponsor from freely extracting cash.

On the other hand, joint issuance and cross guarantees by multiple SPVs do not automatically simplify investor protection at the individual SPV level. CGRNEG bondholders do not look only to the assets of one SPV, but rely on overall cash pooling and cross guarantees. Therefore, group-wide generation performance, offtaker collections, distribution restrictions, additional debt restrictions, DSCR lock-up, and implementation of MCS are more important than the collateral value of individual projects. In addition, the cash waterfall, restricted payment test, permitted debt, change of control, event of default, and hedging covenant are important provisions that determine the practical protection available to bondholders. However, because direct extraction from the full Offering Memorandum was limited in this review, these provisions are not asserted conclusively here. The analysis distinguishes between what can be confirmed from CRISIL, India INX, and the FY2025 financial statements, and what remains unverified.

Reprinted Fitch information states that CGRNEG has a structure in which operating entities directly co-issue the U.S. dollar bond, placing bondholders closer to the operating assets than in the two-tier structures often seen in Indian renewable transactions. This is positive. Direct issuance shortens the distance between the issuer and the repayment source compared with structures in which Continuum Energy Levanter Pte. Ltd. issues debt and holds NCDs issued by Indian SPVs. However, this point depends on the reprinted Fitch information, and the final collateral package, the several / joint obligation of each SPV, collateral enforcement under Indian law, and the details of the trust deed need to be confirmed in the full Offering Memorandum and indenture.

A structural caveat is that the parent or sponsor credit should not be confused with the credit of the CGRNEG bond. CRISIL explains that, except for WIPL, the SPVs are 100% subsidiaries of Continuum Green Energy Private Ltd, while WIPL has equity interests held by group captive customers. As of February 2025, Continuum Green Energy Holdings Ltd Singapore owned 85.35% of CGEPL, JC Infinity (B) Limited, an investment vehicle of Just Climate, owned 14.65%, and CGEHL was owned 74% by founders and 26% by Morgan Stanley. The sponsor structure affects the group’s capital access, but the direct repayment source for the CGRNEG bond is the restricted group’s cash flow.

6. Capital Structure, Liquidity and Funding

The borrowing structure of the CGRNEG restricted group at end-March 2025 changed materially from end-March 2024. At FY2024-end, the group had term loans from financial institutions and banks, 8.75% INR NCDs issued to Continuum Energy Levanter, other related-party borrowings, and working capital loans. At FY2025-end, the main external interest-bearing debt had been replaced by the 7.50% U.S. dollar senior secured notes, and the old term loans and old NCDs had been repaid.

On a contract basis in the public financial statements, the principal equivalent of the 7.50% U.S. dollar bond at end-March 2025 was INR54,362mn, of which INR2,030mn was classified as due within one year, INR11,779mn as due in one to five years, and INR40,553mn as due after more than five years. This suggests that the bond is not a full bullet structure, but combines a small amount of scheduled amortization with MCS. At the same time, it is also clear that a large balance remains until 2033, and CGRNEG investors need to assess not only generation performance but also market access for refinancing the residual principal and the remaining economic life of the assets.

On liquidity, cash and cash equivalents at FY2025-end were INR2,751mn and other bank balances were INR2,450mn, for a total of INR5,201mn. This was higher than INR4,105mn at end-March 2024. CRISIL also assessed the CRG’s liquidity as strong, citing cash and equivalents of approximately Rs528 crore as of 13 January 2025, together with DSRA, retention of annual surplus cash, and distribution restrictions subject to lender consent. In the public financial statements, working capital loans were also zero at end-March 2025.

However, cash balance alone is insufficient to assess liquidity as strong. The key items to confirm in this transaction are the required and actual DSRA balance, cumulative MCS amount, distribution restriction tests, last twelve months’ DSCR, collateral posting or additional costs related to hedging contracts, and utilization of the working capital basket. These are only partially available from the public financial statements and CRISIL materials. Based on public information, liquidity has improved, but a bondholder’s assessment of “strong liquidity” should remain a provisional judgment relying on CRISIL’s rating materials. A compliance certificate or noteholder report is needed before making an investment decision.

Foreign exchange risk is also important. The bond is U.S. dollar-denominated, while generation revenue is mainly generated in Indian rupees. The FY2025 financial statements explain that FX movements on the 7.50% U.S. dollar bond are hedged. Finance cost also includes option premium cost of INR804mn and exchange differences treated as borrowing costs of INR782mn. Hedging reduces FX risk on principal and interest, but hedging cost itself pressures cash flow. The degree to which P&L and cash burden increases in periods of INR weakness or higher hedging costs needs to be monitored on an ongoing basis.

7. Rating Agency View

The India INX listing notice shows that CGRNEG 7.50% due 2033 was rated Moody's Ba2 and Fitch BB+ at listing. This report treats these as the publicly confirmed international bond credit positioning at the time of listing in June 2024. The full original reports from Moody's and Fitch, and whether there had been any rating change as of 12 May 2026, have not been verified. Ba2 / BB+ is a relatively high high-yield or just-below-investment-grade level for an Indian renewable project bond, and is a rating category that recognizes operating assets, contracted cash flows, and structural protection, while still reflecting generation variability, offtaker risk, regulated tariff risk, and refinancing risk.

CRISIL reaffirmed Crisil A+/Stable / Crisil A1 on the domestic Indian bank facilities in February 2025. An important distinction is that CRISIL’s rating target is not the CGRNEG U.S. dollar bond itself, but the bank facilities of Continuum Trinethra Renewables Pvt Ltd. However, because CRISIL analyzes the company as part of an eight-company co-obligor group and evaluates cross guarantees, cash pooling, DSRA, MCS, and distribution restrictions, its report is highly useful for understanding the restricted group’s credit profile.

The main strengths identified by CRISIL are that the 990.8MW capacity is effectively fully contracted, that the mix of C&I and discom offtake provides revenue visibility, that the wind and solar portfolio is diversified across four states, that the debt structure combines interest payment, limited amortization, MCS, and DSRA to protect short-term liquidity, and that discom receivable collection has improved. Conversely, the weaknesses identified include past payment delays by MSEDCL and MPPMCL, risk of P90 underperformance for wind and solar generation, refinancing risk in 2033, and risks related to C&I contract renewal, tariff regimes, and changes in open access charges.

In April 2025, CRISIL withdrew the CRISIL EL 1 rating on CTRPL’s legacy Rs979.89 crore bank facilities based on the company’s request and receipt of a no-dues certificate. This was mainly associated with repayment and refinancing of old bank borrowings and does not imply that the credit quality of the CGRNEG bond deteriorated. At the report level, it is necessary to clearly distinguish which ratings remain effective and which ratings were withdrawals of old facilities.

For Fitch, the original full page could not be directly verified in this review, but the BB+ rating at least at listing can be confirmed from public reprinted information and the India INX listing notice. Reprinted information indicates that Fitch’s rating case DSCR for the CGRNEG restricted group was around 2.0x during the bond term and in the refinancing period, while the rating was capped at BB+. This is a Fitch rating-case figure based on reprinted information, not confirmed covenant terms, actual DSCR, or current balances. Directionally, it indicates that the central risks for CGRNEG are the future trajectory of C&I tariffs and regulated charges, contract renewal, open access charges, 2033 refinancing, and reliance on MCS. The single-year financials show a high EBITDA margin, but from a rating perspective, long-term tariff, generation, and refinancing risks determine the ceiling.

For S&P, the rating is not on the CGRNEG bond itself. S&P upgraded the parent company, Continuum Green Energy Holdings Limited, to a long-term issuer rating of BB- in December 2024. S&P recognized expansion in group operating capacity, the group’s position in the C&I market, and improving cash flows, while identifying high leverage and growth investment as constraints. This is not a direct rating of CGRNEG, but can be referenced as supplementary information when considering sponsor / group market access and operating track record.

8. Credit Positioning

Among Indian renewable U.S. dollar bonds, CGRNEG has operating assets, a restricted group structure close to direct issuance, C&I customer diversification, and improved discom receivables. At the same time, it differs from a fully investment-grade-style stable PPA portfolio. Reprinted Fitch information compares the bond with Adani Green Energy Restricted Group 1 / 2. The Adani Green restricted groups rely more on longer-term fixed-price solar assets and government-related or state distribution company offtakers, giving stronger revenue predictability. CGRNEG, by contrast, has a higher C&I share, tariff levels linked to industrial electricity tariffs and regulated charges, and contract renewal risk, so it is weaker in revenue predictability.

On the other hand, CGRNEG is supported by good collection from C&I customers, large customer diversification, and partial avoidance of state distribution company concentration. Based on reprinted Fitch information, the rating case DSCR is also described as high, but this is an unverified rating case from the original report and is treated here only as supplementary directional information. In a pure discom-oriented renewable project, even with long-term PPAs, accumulation of receivables can place significant pressure on short-term liquidity. CGRNEG partially mitigates this issue by combining C&I and discom offtake.

Relative value is not determined in this report. This review does not have access to price or spread data from Bloomberg, Refinitiv, dealer runs, or similar sources, and therefore cannot judge whether CGRNEG 2033s are cheap or rich relative to peers. Based on public information, the analysis can only identify the comparison axes: rating at listing, maturity, issue size, bond structure, revenue quality, and refinancing risk. Potential comparables include Adani Green restricted group bonds, Greenko, ReNew, SAEL, other Indian renewable project bonds, and Indian non-financial high-yield bonds. CGRNEG is naturally positioned as project-bond-like in structure, C&I renewable IPP-like in revenue profile, and upper high-yield in terms of its BB+ / Ba2 rating at listing.

For bondholders, the additional premium required should compensate for 2033 refinancing, the high wind share, C&I tariff and regulatory risk, INR and hedge costs, and public information limitations. Conversely, supports include the operating 990.8MW portfolio, receivable days of 29 days, cash and bank balances of INR5.2bn, and structural cash pooling / DSRA / MCS. Moody's and Fitch should be referenced as listing-date information confirmed in the India INX listing notice, and CRISIL should be referenced as domestic rating information from the February 2025 rating rationale and April 2025 withdrawal notice. In all cases, the debt instrument, rating scale, and confirmation date need to be read separately.

9. Key Credit Strengths and Constraints

CGRNEG’s first strength is that the repayment source is not development-stage assets, but an already operating 990.8MW portfolio. Unlike greenfield projects where new construction risk is central, the FY2025 financial statements allow confirmation of actual generation, revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, receivables, borrowings, and liquidity. This expands the scope of analysis possible based on public information.

The second strength is that offtake is diversified between C&I customers and discoms. C&I customers carry tariff renewal risk, but collection is better than for state distribution companies. Discoms provide longer contracts, but have a history of payment delays. The combination is not a single strength, but rather a portfolio of different risks. The improvement in receivable days to 29 days at end-March 2025 indicates that this combination was functioning as of FY2025.

The third strength is the restricted group structure. If the eight-company co-issuer arrangement, cross guarantees, cash pooling, DSRA, waterfall, MCS, and distribution restrictions function as intended, short-term fluctuations at individual projects can be absorbed at the group level. In particular, even if discom receivables temporarily increase, C&I collections or surplus cash from other SPVs may be able to supplement liquidity.

Fourth, external ratings are not themselves a support to credit quality, but are useful confirmation of how rating agencies assess the contracted offtake, diversification, collections, and structural protections described above. The Moody's Ba2 / Fitch BB+ ratings at listing confirmed by the India INX listing notice, and CRISIL’s February 2025 domestic long-term A+/Stable rating, support positioning CGRNEG toward the upper end of high yield. However, ratings are not a substitute for analysis. In addition, domestic and international ratings differ in scale and target debt, so CRISIL A+ should not be read as equivalent to an international investment-grade rating.

The first constraint is that generation depends on natural conditions. FY2025 availability itself was high, but generation and revenue declined. In periods when wind speed or irradiation falls below P90, P&L interest coverage and DSCR are pressured. High availability and sufficient resource are separate issues.

The second constraint is C&I tariffs, contract renewal, and regulated charges. C&I provides good collection, but does not have the same predictability as long-term fixed-price PPAs. Open access charges, cross subsidy surcharge, discom C&I tariffs, and state-level regulatory changes can alter the economics for both the generator and customers. Even if contracts contain some sharing mechanisms, not everything can necessarily be passed through.

The third constraint is 2033 refinancing. The bond has partial amortization and MCS, but based on public materials and rating comments, a large balance remains before final maturity. Based on reprinted Fitch information, scheduled amortization of 4.5% and MCS of approximately 43.1% would leave approximately 52.4% dependent on refinancing. However, this is an unverified rating case from the original Fitch report, not confirmed contractual terms, actual MCS, or current balance. If MCS does not progress as expected, the final refinancing burden will be larger.

The fourth constraint is the limitation of public information. The FY2025 combined financial statements are useful, but the current outstanding principal, actual DSRA balance, covenant DSCR, compliance certificate, waiver history, hedge contract details, current price, and spreads required for an investment decision cannot be fully confirmed from public sources alone. This is not merely an information gap; it is a liquidity, price discovery, and monitoring risk inherent in non-public infrastructure bonds.

10. Downside Scenarios and Monitoring Triggers

The most realistic downside scenario is a multi-year shortfall in wind and solar resource, causing generation to fall below P90. In FY2025, generation was lower than the prior year, and revenue and Adjusted EBITDA also declined. A single year of natural variation may be absorbable through cash, DSRA, and distribution restrictions. If it persists for multiple years, however, MCS progress would slow, the residual refinancing balance in 2033 would increase, and rating downgrade pressure would rise.

The second scenario is a renewed expansion of payment delays from state distribution companies. Receivables had improved as of end-March 2025, but MSEDCL and MPPMCL have histories of long-dated arrears. Even though the late payment surcharge rule has improved payment behavior, payment cycles could deteriorate due to state finances, electricity tariff policy, subsidy payments, or political factors. The indicators to monitor are discom-by-discom receivable balances, receivable days, continuing collection of MPPMCL’s historical arrears through EMIs, and MSEDCL’s normal payment cycle.

The third scenario is tariff decline upon C&I contract renewal or an increase in regulated charges. From the generator’s perspective, C&I customers have good collection, but from the customer’s perspective, if the relative advantage versus grid tariffs narrows, contract renewal becomes less attractive. Increases in open access charges or cross subsidy surcharge, state-level regulatory changes, or slower growth in C&I tariffs would reduce the generator’s effective net tariff and affect EBITDA and DSCR. For assets such as Bothe, where PPAs may expire and move to open access, renewal economics need to be assessed individually.

The fourth scenario is INR depreciation and higher hedging costs. The company explains that FX movements on the U.S. dollar bond are hedged, but hedging is not free. In FY2025, option premium cost and FX-related finance costs were material. If hedge costs remain high, they will affect not only P&L interest burden but also actual distributable cash and MCS. Indicators to monitor are hedging policy, hedge maturity, option premium, cash collateral, and finance cost breakdown.

The fifth scenario is deterioration in the refinancing market in 2033. CGRNEG’s rating includes an assumption that the residual principal at final maturity can be refinanced into long-term amortizing debt. If the Indian renewable bond market, U.S. dollar rates, India country risk, green bond demand, or parent company capital market access deteriorates, both refinancing feasibility and refinancing cost would be affected. Although 2033 is still some time away, refinancing risk may be priced earlier if multiple factors accumulate, such as lower-than-expected MCS, low DSCR, weak generation, poor contract renewal terms, or rising discom receivables.

The sixth scenario is that parent company or sponsor events spill over into the restricted group. Additional investment by Just Climate and IPO preparations may support capital access. However, if parent growth investments, sponsor loans, equity transfers, related-party transactions, or distribution demands intensify, bondholders need to confirm how effectively restricted group distribution restrictions and additional debt restrictions operate.

11. Credit View and Monitoring Focus

The provisional credit view that can be formed from public information is that, based on the rating at listing confirmed by the India INX listing notice, this is an upper high-yield Indian renewable project bond, in the Ba2 / BB+ area. However, the original Moody's / Fitch reports and whether there had been any rating change as of 12 May 2026 have not been verified. Directionally, because FY2025 generation, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA were lower than the previous year, while receivables and liquidity improved, the credit is not in a clearly improving or deteriorating phase, but rather in a phase of confirmation with a broadly stable view while generation performance and MCS progress are monitored. The probability of a rapid credit shift in normal conditions is not high, but because P&L interest headroom is thin, the view could be revised downward relatively quickly if wind resource underperformance, discom payment delays, deterioration in C&I tariff terms, higher hedging costs, and refinancing market deterioration overlap.

The core supports for this credit view are the operating 990.8MW assets, the combination of C&I and discom offtake, four-state diversification, improved receivables, and the restricted group’s cash pooling and distribution restrictions. Although FY2025 generation and revenue declined, operating cash flow remained at INR8.2bn and end-period cash and bank balances increased to INR5.2bn. The decline in discom receivables is also important for short-term liquidity.

At the same time, financial headroom should not be overestimated. FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA was INR8.9bn and external borrowing costs were INR7.3bn, leaving simple coverage based on public figures of only approximately 1.23x. This reference interest coverage is a P&L metric for the FY2025 refinancing transition year, and external borrowing costs include hedge, FX, and refinancing-related items, so it is not a substitute for steady-state DSCR. Even so, bondholders should not overlook that FY2025 actual P&L did not show ample headroom relative to the external interest burden.

For holders or potential buyers of CGRNEG, the central question is not whether the 7.50% coupon is high or low, but how far MCS and small scheduled amortization progress by 2033, and how much refinancing principal ultimately remains. Based on reprinted Fitch information, scheduled amortization is 4.5%, MCS is 43.1%, and the remaining 52.4% depends on refinancing. However, this is an unverified rating case from the original Fitch report and is not the actual amortization schedule or current balance. Therefore, actual MCS, DSCR, distribution restrictions, cash balance, and contract renewal terms need to be checked every year.

Relative value is not assessed in this report because market data are unavailable. CGRNEG has the characteristics of BB+ / Ba2 at listing, 2033 maturity, green bond status, Indian renewables, restricted group structure, a structure close to direct issuance, high C&I share, and 2033 refinancing. Relevant comparables include Adani Green restricted group, Greenko, ReNew, and SAEL, but an actual investment decision requires current price, YTW, WAL, Z-spread / G-spread, liquidity, and bond curves for the same issuer, country, and sector.

Future monitoring should first confirm FY2026 generation, PLF, availability, revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and external interest coverage. Second, it should check discom-by-discom receivables and the C&I collection cycle. Third, it should confirm the track record of MCS, DSRA, covenant DSCR, and distribution restriction tests. Fourth, it should monitor C&I contract renewal, open access charges, cross subsidy surcharge, and state-by-state tariff regime changes. Fifth, the impact of the parent company’s IPO, capital injections, and sponsor ownership changes should be translated into the CGRNEG bond’s covenants and cash flows, rather than viewed merely as parent company news.

12. Short Summary & Conclusion

Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited and Other Co-Issuers is the issuer of a U.S. dollar-denominated secured green bond backed by the CGRNEG restricted group, which pools 990.8MW of operating Indian renewable energy assets. Credit quality is supported by sales to C&I customers and state distribution companies, receivable collection, and structural protections including cash pooling / DSRA / MCS. It is constrained by wind and solar resource underperformance, C&I tariff and regulatory changes, discom payment delays, and 2033 refinancing. Based on public information, the credit is in a stable monitoring phase as an upper high-yield bond around the Ba2 / BB+ rating at listing, but current balance, DSRA, covenant DSCR, and actual MCS are the next key monitoring items.

13. Sources

1. Continuum Green Energy, Bond Investor, Offering Memorandum page, "RGII - Final Offering Memorandum dated June 18, 2024".
   https://www.continuumenergy.in/bond-investor/offering-memorandum

2. Continuum Restricted Group 2, Special Purpose Combined Financial Statements for the year ended March 31, 2025.
   https://www.continuumenergy.in/uploads/assign_document/1752081567_RG%202%20Combined%20Financial%20Statement%20FY%202024-25.pdf

3. CRISIL Ratings, "Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited - Ratings reaffirmed at Crisil A+/Stable/Crisil A1", 28 February 2025.
   https://www.crisilratings.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/ContinuumTrinethraRenewablesPrivateLimited_February%2028_%202025_RR_361350.html

4. CRISIL Ratings, "Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited Ratings Withdrawn", 8 April 2025.
   https://www.crisil.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/ContinuumTrinethraRenewablesPrivateLimited_April%2008_%202025_RR_361534.html

5. India International Exchange (IFSC) Ltd., Circular No. 20240627-2, "Issue of U.S.$650,000,000 7.50 per cent. Senior Secured Notes due 2033 by Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited and Other Co-Issuers", 27 June 2024.
   https://www.indiainx.com/circulars/20240627-2/20240627-2.pdf

6. IFSCA, "ESG-Labeled Debt Listing as of November 30, 2025 on IFSC exchanges".
   https://ifsca.gov.in/Pages/Contents/Sustainable_Finance

7. Continuum Green Energy, Bond Investor, Investor Announcements.
   https://www.continuumenergy.in/bond-investor/investor-announcements

8. Continuum Green Energy, Bond Investor, Green Bond Framework page.
   https://www.continuumenergy.in/bond-investor/green-bond-framework

9. S&P Global Ratings, "Continuum Green Energy Upgraded To 'BB-' On Improving Cash Flows; Outlook Stable", 18 December 2024.
   https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/pt/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3301263

10. Reprinted Fitch commentary in The Credit Risk Alert Public File, "Continuum Green: Fitch Puts 'BB+(EXP)' Rating to Sr. Secured Notes", 3 June 2024. Original Fitch page was not directly accessible in this review, so the Fitch detail is treated as a secondary-source supplement except where confirmed by India INX listing data.
    https://www.bankrupt.com/TCRAP_Public/240603.mbx

11. S&P Dow Jones Indices, "iBoxx USD Asia ex-Japan 2024-06 Market Commentary", insertion table including CGRNEG 7.5% 2033.
    https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/commentary/market-commentary-iboxx-usd-asia-ex-japan-2024-06.pdf

12. TradingView FINRA bond reference pages for public identifiers of Continuum Trinethra Renewables Private Limited 7.5% 26-Jun-2033. Used only for bond identifiers and not for valuation.
    https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FINRA-CONTF5835010/
    https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FINRA-CONTF5835011/

14. Unverified / Pending

• Direct extraction of the full Offering Memorandum, and detailed confirmation of collateral, cross guarantee, change of control, additional indebtedness, restricted payments, DSCR lock-up, cash sweep, and DSRA provisions under the indenture / trust deed.
• Detailed confirmation of post-issuance actual amortization schedule, mandatory cash sweep trigger and application, restricted payment test, permitted debt, event of default, and hedging covenant.
• Current outstanding balance, clean price, yield to worst, Z-spread / G-spread, WAL, liquidity, and market levels by 144A / Reg S tranche for CGRNEG 2033s as of 12 May 2026.
• Quarterly or annual combined financial statements for FY2026 and thereafter, compliance certificate, actual DSRA balance, MCS track record, and covenant DSCR.
• Full original rating reports from Moody's and Fitch. Moody's Ba2 / Fitch BB+ was confirmed from the India INX listing notice, but rating sensitivities and base-case details should be confirmed from original materials.
• C&I customer-level contract maturities, tariff formulas, renewal status, termination clauses, and state-level sensitivity to open access charges / cross subsidy surcharge.
• Project-level PPA tenor and tariff details, customer concentration, and economics upon contract renewal or conversion to open access for assets such as Bothe.
• Latest receivable aging by discom, collection schedule for past dues from MSEDCL / MPPMCL, and continuing receipt of payments under the late payment surcharge rule.
• Maturity, hedge ratio, hedging cost, collateral posting requirements, and smooth rollover feasibility for hedging contracts on the U.S. dollar bond.
• Impact of the parent company’s IPO, additional investment by Just Climate, and shareholder composition changes on CGRNEG restricted group covenants, distributions, additional debt, and sponsor support.