ReNew Energy Global / ReNew Power group issuer summary: Credit analysis of RPVIN bonds

Date: 2026-05-22

1. Analytical scope and positioning of this report

This report reviews the credit profile of ReNew Energy Global plc and the surrounding ReNew Private Limited / ReNew Power Private Limited structure, which forms the core of the group’s India operations, from the perspective of US dollar bond investors. The focus is on ReNew-related bonds that may be traded or referenced under RPVIN, specifically the notes due 2027, 2028, and 2031. However, while these three bonds may appear from their names to be the same ReNew group debt, the issuer, guarantors, collateral, and primary repayment sources differ materially. This report therefore first reviews the group’s overall business and financial profile, and then assesses the structure of each bond separately.

ReNew Energy Global plc is a public company incorporated under UK law, with Nasdaq-listed shares trading under the ticker RNW. In the bond market, meanwhile, RPVIN may be used as an issuer reference for the ReNew group, including the former ReNew Power Private Limited. The key point is that the bond issuer is not necessarily the listed holding company itself. The 2027 notes are unsecured-by-guarantee but secured notes issued by ReNew Power Private Limited. The 2028 notes are restricted-group-style notes jointly issued by multiple project companies, with a parent guarantee from ReNew Power Private Limited. The 2031 notes are finance subsidiary notes issued by ReNew Treasury IFSC Private Limited, a GIFT City treasury subsidiary, and guaranteed by ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited. Due to group reorganisation and name changes, company disclosures include contexts in which ReNew Private Limited is described as the former ReNew Power Private Limited. In this report, the contractual and disclosure names for each bond are respected: ReNew Power Private Limited is used for the 2027 and 2028 notes, while ReNew Private Limited is used for the guarantor of the 2031 notes.

These differences can easily be missed if the analysis relies only on relative pricing or ratings. Even if the group’s overall credit quality is the same, differences in the obligor, collateral package, guarantees, collateral coverage, and restricted-group perimeter change the cash flow and legal rights on which bondholders can actually rely. In particular, the 2027 notes should not be viewed as “parent-guaranteed ReNew group debt”; the analysis needs to focus on the obligations of ReNew Power Private Limited itself and the SECI II-related collateral. For the 2028 notes, repayment capacity at the project-company group is central, and while there is a parent guarantee, the main analytical focus is the restricted group. The 2031 notes are not joint-issuer project-company notes, but refinancing notes issued through a group finance subsidiary; the design of the upstream guarantees and collateral coverage needs to be checked.

2. Business overview and recent changes

ReNew is a large renewable energy group operating mainly in India, with businesses in wind, solar, hydro, energy storage, and solar cell and solar module manufacturing. The company was founded in 2011 and began operations in 2012. In its FY2025 annual report, the company stated that, as of May 31, 2025, its clean energy portfolio was approximately 18.46GW, with 11.17GW of commissioned capacity and 7.29GW of contracted but not yet commissioned capacity. In the FY2026 full-year results released on May 18, 2026, total portfolio capacity as of March 31, 2026 was approximately 20GW, commissioned capacity was approximately 12.6GW, and commissioned capacity as of the announcement date, including subsequent additions, had increased to approximately 12.8GW. Based on scale alone, ReNew ranks among the larger renewable energy generation companies in India.

The business is built on long-term power purchase agreements. The company has built a portfolio of wind, solar, hybrid, and time-of-day supply contracts with central government agencies, state distribution companies, and commercial and industrial customers. In its FY2025 annual report, the company stated that revenue derived from power purchase agreements with central government agencies and state distribution companies accounted for 59% of total revenue, while revenue from commercial and industrial customers accounted for 9%. Central government agencies include SECI, NTPC, NHPC, REC, REMCL, SJVN, and PTC, and the company explains that approximately 53% of its offtakers by capacity are central government agencies. This reduces concentration on state distribution companies alone, but it also means the business remains exposed to the Indian power-sector framework, transmission constraints, payment delays, and regulatory changes.

The most important recent changes are the expansion of generation capacity and the earnings contribution from the manufacturing business. In FY2026, the company commissioned approximately 2.4GW of new capacity, comprising approximately 1.7GW of solar, approximately 0.6GW of wind, and 25MW/100MWh of storage. As of March 31, 2026, commissioned capacity comprised approximately 5.6GW of wind, approximately 6.8GW of solar, and 99MW of hydro. In addition, the company has 6.4GW of solar module manufacturing capacity and 2.5GW of solar cell manufacturing capacity, and plans to expand solar cell manufacturing capacity by a further 4GW, with commissioning scheduled by December 2026. The fact that manufacturing earnings and supply-chain management are now being layered on top of the long-term contracted revenue of a generation company has made ReNew’s credit analysis more complex in recent years.

There were also several important capital-policy developments in 2025 and 2026. In December 2025, an acquisition proposal involving Masdar ended after Masdar withdrew. At that time, the company explained that it continued to have the support of the founder, CPP Investments, and ADIA, and reaffirmed its FY2026 outlook. In January 2026, the company issued US$600mn of 6.50% green bonds due 2031 through its GIFT City subsidiary, mainly to refinance the US$525mn Diamond II bonds due 2026. The company described this transaction as refinancing rather than incremental debt, and highlighted the lower coupon and extension of maturity. In April 2026, the company announced a US$95mn capital raise at ReNew Green and the sale of a 100MW solar project in Tamil Nadu. Capital recycling and the use of external capital therefore remain important funding tools.

3. Business base, contract structure, and position in India’s renewable energy market

The first factor supporting ReNew’s credit profile is that it has a reasonably long execution record within the broader policy and demand trend of renewable energy expansion in India. According to the FY2025 annual report, the company’s commissioned capacity expanded from 2.0GW at the end of March 2017 to 10.7GW at the end of March 2025. The company also states that it contributed approximately 7% of the wind and solar generation capacity added in India between April 2024 and March 2025. India as a whole has policy targets to significantly expand non-fossil power generation by 2030, and demand is expanding for transmission networks, storage, time-of-day supply, and corporate renewable energy procurement. Against this backdrop of market growth, ReNew is expanding from simple wind and solar generation into peak supply, round-the-clock supply, and hybrid projects that combine storage.

The second factor is the visibility of revenue under long-term contracts. Power purchase agreements with central government agencies and state distribution companies are typically around 25 years, while commercial and industrial contracts generally range from 3 to 25 years. Because fixed-price contracts are the core of the business, once assets are commissioned, cash flow can be analysed based on relatively visible tariffs and generation volumes. This is important for project-finance-style borrowings and bonds. In addition, a reasonably high share of central government agency offtakers can contribute to more stable receivable collection compared with generators that depend only on state distribution companies.

However, long-term fixed-price contracts are both a credit support and a constraint. Even if power prices rise, tariffs under existing contracts cannot easily be increased, and profitability can come under pressure if construction costs, interest rates, operating expenses, or imported equipment costs rise. The company states that it may be able to use compensation claims under “change in law” clauses, but actual recovery requires procedures with regulators, courts, and customers, and involves time and uncertainty. Renewable energy benefits from a priority dispatch concept in India, but the risk of curtailment or collection delays remains due to transmission congestion, grid stability issues, and the behaviour of state distribution companies.

The company’s competitiveness also includes the fact that it has internalised development, procurement, construction, and operations capabilities. In its FY2025 annual report, the company states that it has 132 wind-monitoring masts across 110 sites, has secured land rights over more than 50,000 acres, and has developed many of its solar projects using its own design, procurement, and construction capabilities. A substantial portion of operations and maintenance is also handled internally. In India’s highly competitive renewable energy bidding market, this may be advantageous in managing construction costs, equipment procurement, utilisation, and outage response. On the other hand, rapid expansion entails execution risks, including land acquisition, transmission connectivity, equipment procurement, construction delays, equipment quality, and securing maintenance personnel.

4. Segment view

ReNew’s generation business is divided into wind, solar, hydro, and storage / hybrid projects. FY2026 power sold was 24,008mn kWh, up 11.3% year on year. By segment, wind generation was 12,093mn kWh, up 17.9%; solar generation was 11,554mn kWh, up 6.2%; and hydro generation was 361mn kWh, down 17.0%. Wind PLF improved to 26.3% from 24.4% in the prior year, while solar PLF declined to 21.9% from 23.6%. Therefore, FY2026 generation was supported by capacity additions and improved wind resource, but there is still room to verify the resource conditions and operating performance of solar assets.

The strength of the generation business is the resilience of revenue under long-term contracts. Compared with generators that depend heavily on short-term power-price movements, ReNew’s power sales revenue is easier to forecast. However, the fundamental renewable energy risk of weather dependence does not disappear. The company’s FY2027 guidance also assumes weather and resource conditions similar to FY2026. Even if installed capacity increases, deterioration in wind resource, solar irradiation, transmission constraints, or equipment outages could cause power sold, adjusted EBITDA, and CFe to fall below company guidance.

The manufacturing business has risks and opportunities that differ from the traditional generation business. FY2026 external revenue from solar module and solar cell manufacturing was INR 41,944mn, a significant increase from INR 13,253mn in FY2025. Adjusted EBITDA from the manufacturing business was INR 14,782mn in FY2026, up from INR 4,212mn in FY2025. This represents approximately 15% of consolidated adjusted EBITDA of INR 98,503mn in FY2026. It is positive that the manufacturing business is reducing procurement risk for the generation business and increasing revenue sources through external sales.

At the same time, manufacturing is more sensitive than generation to changes in the economy, pricing, raw materials, and policy. In India, tariffs on imported modules and cells, approved manufacturer lists, and domestic manufacturing support measures create business opportunities, but regulatory changes or shortages in domestic supply can also lead to construction delays and cost increases. Even if manufacturing margins were high in FY2026, the resulting cash flow should not be treated as having the same quality as long-term contracted power sales revenue. In credit analysis, the manufacturing business should be assessed as a growth driver, while separately considering margin volatility, inventory, customer concentration, import restrictions, and execution risk in capacity expansion.

Capital recycling is also important. ReNew is seeking to combine growth investment with capital efficiency through partial sales of operating assets, minority stake sales, co-investment, and refinancing. The company states that it executed 600MW of asset sales in FY2026. Asset sales can be a tool to restrain excessive debt growth, but they cannot necessarily be repeated every period on the same terms. From a credit perspective, asset sale gains should not be treated in the same way as recurring generation revenue, and the focus should be on how proceeds are used for debt reduction, self-funding of growth investment, and profit allocation with minority shareholders.

5. Financial profile

FY2026 results show strong headline growth. Total revenue was INR 150,635mn, up 38% from INR 109,070mn in FY2025. Net profit was INR 10,385mn, up from INR 4,591mn in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was INR 98,503mn, up 24% from INR 79,188mn in the prior year. Operating cash flow was also INR 82,824mn, exceeding INR 67,565mn in the prior year. Viewed in isolation, this was a year in which scale expansion, the manufacturing business, asset sales, and increased operating assets lifted earnings capacity.

However, in credit analysis, attention is needed to the nature of adjusted EBITDA and CFe. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure that adds back finance costs, depreciation and amortisation, taxes, fair value changes, and other items. The company itself explains that this measure does not reflect future replacement capex, capital expenditure, contractual expenditure, or foreign-exchange gains and losses. CFe is also a non-IFRS measure and does not fully reflect working-capital movements or investing activities. For a generation company such as ReNew, which continues to carry out construction investment, an increase in adjusted EBITDA does not directly translate into debt-reduction capacity.

FY2026-end net interest-bearing debt was INR 687,138mn, equivalent to approximately 7.0x adjusted EBITDA of INR 98,503mn. This simple calculation does not match rating-agency definitions, but it is useful in understanding the weight of debt. At FY2026-end, the company had INR 80,629mn of cash, bank balances, and current investments. The breakdown was cash and cash equivalents of INR 22,845mn, other bank balances of INR 46,706mn, deposits with maturities of more than 12 months of INR 3,792mn, and current investments of INR 7,286mn. Liquidity provides short-term support, but it is not an excessive cushion relative to the total investment scale and debt balance.

Improvement in receivables is a positive feature of FY2026 results. Gross receivables at the end of March 2026 were INR 25,303mn, of which INR 6,882mn included unbilled and related amounts. Receivable days in the independent power generation business were 63 days, an improvement of 8 days from 71 days in the prior year. Manufacturing receivables were INR 2,352mn, with receivable days of 21 days. For Indian renewable energy generators, delayed payments by state distribution companies are an important credit risk, so this improvement is meaningful. However, the FY2025 annual report disclosed receivables from government-related and state distribution companies, Andhra Pradesh-related litigation, and disputes relating to long-term access charges. It is therefore not possible to say that receivable risk has disappeared.

The company’s FY2027 guidance indicates construction completion of 1.6GW to 2.4GW, adjusted EBITDA of INR 103bn to INR 109bn, and CFe of INR 18bn to INR 22bn. This guidance includes asset-sale gains of INR 1bn to INR 2bn and adjusted EBITDA from the manufacturing business of INR 10bn to INR 12bn. Accordingly, the key issues for FY2027 are not only additional generation capacity, but also manufacturing margins, execution of asset sales, finance costs, receivable collection, and the presence or absence of construction delays. FY2026 results support the credit profile, but not enough to fully resolve the investment burden and high leverage.

Even when reading FY2026 results positively from a credit perspective, the components of earnings growth need to be disaggregated. Total revenue includes items with different characteristics from long-term PPA-based power sales revenue, such as external manufacturing revenue, fair-value gains, asset-sale gains, and late-payment surcharge income. The improvement in net profit is also determined not only by the underlying earnings power of generation assets, but by the combination of these factors with taxes, depreciation, and finance costs. Therefore, for bond investors, the order of verification should be: first, power sales revenue and PLF; second, receivables and operating cash flow; third, finance costs and investing cash flow; and finally, asset-sale and fair-value factors. If this order is maintained, FY2026 was certainly an improved year, but it still cannot be described as a clear inflection point that materially reduces the debt burden.

6. Capital structure, liquidity, and funding

ReNew’s credit profile depends heavily on access to the international capital markets and Indian domestic financial institutions. In its FY2025 annual report, the company states that it has received a total of US$2.1bn of equity investment from shareholders since inception, and that it issued more than US$4.0bn of offshore US dollar green bonds from 2017 to March 2025. Shareholders include CPP Investments, ADIA, and JERA. This shows that, unlike small project developers dependent on a single bank borrowing channel, the company has broad funding options.

At the same time, funding capacity is both a credit support and a condition for the credit profile. The company operates in a capital-intensive industry and requires substantial funding for projects under construction and future projects. In its FY2025 annual report, the company disclosed total borrowings of INR 723,018mn at end-March 2025, including INR 20,245mn of compulsorily convertible debentures. In the FY2026 results, net interest-bearing debt reached INR 687,138mn. Finance costs and derivative fair-value changes were INR 61,754mn in FY2026, up 18% from FY2025. The main drivers were the increase in operating assets and finance costs associated with the manufacturing business. As long as refinancing continues smoothly, the long-term contracted revenue from generation assets supports the debt. However, if market conditions deteriorate, asset sales, construction deferrals, capital raising, and worsening refinancing terms could become issues at the same time.

The 2031 notes issued in January 2026 are an important example of funding capacity. The company issued US$600mn of 6.50% senior secured green bonds through ReNew Treasury IFSC Private Limited, mainly to redeem the US$525mn Diamond II bonds due 2026. The company described this transaction as refinancing rather than incremental debt, and explained that it lowered the coupon from 7.95% to 6.50% and extended the maturity from 2026 to 2031. As a refinancing transaction, this is positive, but it also shows that the group continues to require access to the foreign-currency bond market.

Asset sales and external capital are buffers against growth investment and high leverage. The company’s strategy is to recover value from operating assets through asset sales and minority stake sales and redeploy the proceeds into subsequent development. In April 2026, the company explained that ReNew Green had secured US$95mn of capital, and that it expected cash inflow of approximately US$24mn from the sale of a solar project in Tamil Nadu. From a credit perspective, it is positive that these transactions restrain debt growth. However, asset sales depend on market prices, buyer demand, regulatory approvals, and the operating status of the assets being sold, and should not be overvalued as a recurring repayment source.

The holding-company structure also requires attention. ReNew Energy Global plc itself depends on distributions and payments from operating subsidiaries. Movement of funds from Indian subsidiaries to upper-tier companies is affected by local regulations, loan agreements, distribution restrictions, collateral arrangements, and agreements with minority shareholders. Even if cash flow is sufficient on a consolidated group basis, it does not necessarily mean that funds can be moved to the issuer or guarantors of a specific bond. This point is particularly important when comparing the three bonds, because their issuers, guarantors, and collateral differ.

7. Comparison of bond structures

In analysing ReNew-related bonds, the first step is to identify which company is the obligor. The 2027 notes were issued by ReNew Power Private Limited itself. The 2028 notes were jointly issued by 10 project companies, with ReNew Power Private Limited providing a parent guarantee. The 2031 notes were issued by ReNew Treasury IFSC Private Limited, a GIFT City finance subsidiary, and are guaranteed by ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited. Therefore, even for bonds of the same ReNew group, there is no single recovery path.

As this table shows, the 2027, 2028, and 2031 notes all include the term “senior secured,” but they are not the same type of secured bond. The 2027 notes are not guaranteed. The 2028 notes have a parent guarantee and mutual guarantees among the joint issuers, but in substance should be analysed mainly on the cash flow of the relevant project-company group. The 2031 notes are guaranteed by the listed holding company and the Indian intermediate holding company, but collateral coverage is limited and the structure involves a finance subsidiary lending funds within the group. These differences cannot be fully captured by maturity, coupon, rating, or liquidity alone.

8. View on the 2027 notes

The 2027 notes are 5.875% US dollar-denominated senior secured notes issued by ReNew Power Private Limited in January 2020, maturing on March 5, 2027. In the FY2025 annual report, the issuance amount was US$450mn and the outstanding balance as of March 31, 2025 was US$270mn. According to the SGX offering memorandum and company disclosures, the notes are not guaranteed. Therefore, they are not notes that rely on guarantees from ReNew Energy Global plc or ReNew Private Limited, unlike the 2031 notes.

There is collateral. In the FY2025 annual report, the company explains that the 2027 notes are supported by collateral including immovable and movable property, receivables, book debts, cash inflows, related accounts, rights under project documents, and a partial pledge over shares and redeemable preference shares of ReNew Power Services Private Limited, in relation to the 250MW wind project in Kutch, Gujarat. Materials provided by the user also list SECI II Project-related immovable property, movable and intangible assets, receivables, escrow accounts, debt service reserve accounts, contractual rights, and ReNew Power Services shares as collateral. Therefore, the absence of a guarantee does not mean the notes are unsecured.

However, being secured does not mean unconditional access to the entire group. Collateral value depends on the generation volume, PPA, receivables, equipment condition, regulation, and enforcement procedures for the relevant project. Collateral creation, completion timing, sharing, enforcement, and court / regulatory procedures in India are also important. If the collateral is limited to SECI II-related assets, the full ReNew group portfolio of around 20GW should not be treated as a direct recovery source. Of course, the fact that ReNew Power Private Limited itself is a core group company, that the group wants to maintain access to the international bond market, and that the balance of the 2027 notes has fallen from the original issuance amount all support the credit. From the perspective of legal rights, however, the distinction from guaranteed debt needs to be maintained clearly.

For investment analysis of the 2027 notes, the most important questions are whether issuer liquidity and refinancing capacity are sufficient relative to the short remaining maturity, and how well the SECI II-related collateral is preserved. Group liquidity at FY2026-end was INR 80.6bn, and as of January 2026, the 2031 issuance confirmed access to the foreign-currency bond market. However, because the 2027 notes are unguaranteed, it is necessary to check not only improvement in the group’s overall financial position, but also the debt burden of ReNew Power Private Limited on a standalone basis, distribution restrictions, collateral maintenance, and priority relative to existing borrowings.

9. View on the 2028 notes

The 2028 notes are 4.50% US dollar-denominated senior secured notes issued in April 2021. The 10 joint issuers are ReNew Wind Energy AP2 Private Limited, Ostro Jaisalmer Private Limited, Ostro Urja Wind Private Limited, Ostro Madhya Wind Private Limited, Badoni Power Private Limited, AVP Powerinfra Private Limited, Prathamesh Solarfarms Limited, Ostro Anantapur Private Limited, Ostro Mahawind Power Private Limited, and ReNew Wind Energy Delhi Private Limited. ReNew Power Private Limited is the parent guarantor, and each joint issuer also guarantees the others.

These notes differ in nature from general debt of ReNew Power Private Limited on a standalone basis. The Indenture filed with the SEC defines the joint issuers as a restricted group and sets out detailed restrictions relating to collateral, covenants, asset sales, additional debt, dividends and distributions, subsidiary ownership, and related-party transactions. The collateral consists of immovable and movable property, project documents, accounts, and share pledges for each joint issuer. A Security Trustee, Trust and Retention Account, and Security Sharing Agreement are used, establishing the framework for collateral enforcement and distribution of proceeds.

The main recovery source for the 2028 notes is generation cash flow from the relevant project-company group. Because there is a parent guarantee, the credit quality of ReNew Power Private Limited is also important. However, unless the generation volume, PPAs, receivables, operating expenses, interest rates, hedging, and distribution restrictions of the individual projects held by the joint issuers are checked, the bond-specific credit quality cannot be sufficiently understood. In the FY2025 annual report, the company explains that the 2028 notes are supported by each issuer and by the parent guarantee, and are secured by immovable and movable property of each issuer, project documents, 51% share pledges, and other collateral. This is closer to a typical project-company pool bond.

For the 2028 notes, the group’s overall growth and the strong performance of the manufacturing business are not sufficient by themselves. The key issue is whether the joint issuers’ cash flow can service debt and whether sufficient liquidity remains within the restricted group. Investors would want to confirm DSCR, generation volume, receivables, reserve accounts, hedging, the availability of subordinated parent support, and distribution tests for the relevant projects. However, as of this report, project-by-project DSCR and the latest balance of the 2028 notes are unverified. Therefore, this report limits itself to organising the nature of the structure, leaving detailed repayment capacity at the relevant projects as a pending item.

10. View on the 2031 notes

The 2031 notes are US$600mn 6.50% senior secured green bonds issued on February 2, 2026. The issuer is ReNew Treasury IFSC Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of ReNew Private Limited located in GIFT City. India INX’s listing notice dated February 4, 2026 confirms the issuer, issue size, coupon, maturity, ISIN, and ratings. The ratings are listed as Fitch BB-, CareEdge Global BB, and Moody’s Ba3.

The distinguishing features of these notes are that the issuer is not a project company but a finance subsidiary, and that ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited provide guarantees. In the company’s SEC Form 6-K, the company explains that the 2031 notes are guaranteed by ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited and have a collateral package similar to the Diamond II bonds due 2026. The collateral includes issuer accounts, intercompany loans and receivables under those loans, and specified assets, with fixed-asset collateral coverage of 0.5x and total collateral coverage of 1.0x. Investor materials also explain that direct onshore asset collateral is limited to the extent permitted by law.

The 2031 notes are not joint-issuer notes backed by a specific group of project companies like the 2028 notes. The main use of proceeds is the redemption of the US$525mn Diamond II bonds due 2026, and the company described this as refinancing rather than incremental debt. The coupon fell from 7.95% to 6.50%, and the maturity was extended from 2026 to 2031. This is positive in terms of smoothing near-term maturities and reducing interest burden. On the other hand, the collateral for the 2031 notes is not a simple structure directly secured by all assets of project companies; rather, it combines a finance subsidiary, guarantors, intercompany loans, and collateral over specified assets. Therefore, investors need to check the payment capacity of the guarantors, guarantee release conditions, maintenance of collateral coverage, priority of intercompany loans, and constraints on collateral enforcement under Indian law.

The credit view on the 2031 notes is closer to an assessment of group refinancing capacity and the credit quality of the guarantors. Because the notes benefit from guarantees from ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited, the connection to upper-tier group credit is stronger than for the 2027 notes. On the other hand, collateral coverage is limited to 0.5x fixed-asset collateral and 1.0x total collateral coverage, and not all onshore assets are directly pledged. In addition, the investor materials contain a note suggesting that the guarantee by ReNew Energy Global plc could be released in the future. Before treating that guarantee as unchanged through maturity, the release conditions and creditor protections after release need to be checked. The 2031 notes should therefore be viewed as “finance-subsidiary debt with group guarantees and a certain level of collateral coverage,” and should be distinguished from bonds that directly rely on the cash flow of project SPVs.

11. View on ratings

When reading ReNew’s ratings, it is necessary to distinguish between issuer ratings and ratings on specific bonds. In the FY2025 annual report, the company states that its US dollar bonds are rated BB- by Fitch and Ba3 by Moody’s, and that Moody’s corporate rating is Ba2. For the 2031 notes, the company’s January 2026 announcement indicated expected ratings of Moody’s Ba3 and Fitch BB-, while India INX’s listing notice lists Fitch BB-, CareEdge Global BB, and Moody’s Ba3.

These ratings indicate that ReNew is not investment grade, but is assessed as an issuer with a meaningful scale and capital-market access within the non-investment-grade category. Business scale, contracted revenue, and funding record support the ratings, while high debt, ongoing capex, India’s regulatory and offtaker risks, and reliance on refinancing in foreign-currency bond markets are likely constraints. However, as of this report, the full text of the latest rating-agency press releases has not been reviewed. Therefore, the rating levels are stated based on company disclosures and the listing notice, while rating-agency-specific financial metrics, upgrade / downgrade triggers, and collateral assessments remain pending items.

Caution is also needed when using ratings directly to compare bonds. The Ba3 / BB- rating on the 2031 notes is likely an assessment of the bond structure including guarantors and collateral coverage. Even if the individual ratings of the 2027 or 2028 notes appear the same or close, the same rating symbol does not mean the same recovery structure across unguaranteed debt, restricted-group debt, and finance-subsidiary guaranteed debt. In investment analysis, the rating level can be the starting point, but documentation and differences in collateral coverage must be checked.

12. Credit supports and constraints

The first credit support is scale and market position. ReNew is a large renewable energy group in India, with a portfolio of around 20GW across wind, solar, storage, hybrid, and manufacturing. Compared with small generators dependent on a single asset or single state, it has diversification across assets, regions, technologies, and customers. Long-term contracts with central government agencies and commercial and industrial customers improve the visibility of power sales revenue.

The second support is execution and funding capacity. Since beginning operations in 2012, the company has accumulated experience in wind and solar development, acquisitions, construction, and operations. Its internal development, construction, and O&M capabilities support cost and availability management in competitive bidding. Its record of combining international bond markets, Indian domestic financial institutions, strategic shareholders, asset sales, and minority stake sales also reduces short-term liquidity risk. The refinancing of the Diamond II bonds through the 2031 notes shows that this funding capacity is still functioning.

The third support is the improvement in FY2026 earnings. Total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, net profit, and operating cash flow all increased, and receivable days improved. The earnings contribution from the manufacturing business also became larger. This shows that capacity expansion has begun to flow through to financial metrics. However, because the results include manufacturing, asset sales, and fair-value changes, not all of the improvement should be treated as having the same quality as stable power sales revenue.

The first credit constraint is high debt. FY2026-end net interest-bearing debt was INR 687,138mn, or approximately 7.0x FY2026 adjusted EBITDA on a simple calculation. Generation assets are supported by long-term contracts, but the weight of borrowings increases sensitivity to finance costs, refinancing, ratings, and market access. Finance costs and derivative fair-value changes were INR 61,754mn in FY2026, representing a sizeable portion of adjusted EBITDA.

The second constraint is dependence on growth investment and capital recycling. FY2026 investing cash flow was an outflow of INR 106,537mn, exceeding operating cash flow. The company uses asset sales and external capital to manage the investment burden, but this depends on sale prices, buyer demand, regulatory approvals, and asset selection. As long as high growth continues, natural deleveraging will not be easy.

The third constraint is risk relating to the Indian power-sector framework and offtakers. A high share of central government agencies is supportive, but there is uncertainty in contracts with state distribution companies, receivable collection, litigation, curtailment, transmission charges, and change-in-law claims. The FY2025 annual report disclosed tariff, payment, and late-payment surcharge issues related to Andhra Pradesh, as well as litigation and regulatory matters relating to long-term access charges, environmental issues, and transmission lines. Individually, these may be manageable, but if several arise together, they could pressure cash flow and construction schedules.

The fourth constraint is the complexity of the bond structures. The 2027, 2028, and 2031 notes cannot be grouped together simply as the same ReNew group debt. The 2027 notes are not guaranteed, the 2028 notes are restricted-group-style debt, and the 2031 notes are finance-subsidiary-issued debt with upper-tier guarantees. If investors assume that “ReNew is ReNew,” they may misunderstand the collateral, guarantees, and cash flows on which they can actually rely.

13. Downside scenarios and monitoring items

The first downside scenario is simultaneous deterioration in generation and receivables. If wind resource or solar irradiation worsens, solar PLF declines, and payment delays by state distribution companies widen, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, and CFe could fall below company guidance. ReNew’s long-term contracts provide tariff visibility, but if generation volume and collection deteriorate, debt service capacity is directly impaired. Because FY2027 company guidance assumes weather and resource conditions, quarterly generation volume, PLF, and receivable days should be checked early.

The second scenario is an overlap of capex and refinancing burdens. The company expects 1.6GW to 2.4GW of construction completion in FY2027, but if construction delays, higher equipment prices, higher interest rates, foreign exchange, and hedging costs overlap, investing cash flow and finance costs could rise and deleveraging could be delayed. It is positive that the 2031 notes extended part of the near-term maturity wall, but the group’s overall growth funding requirement continues. If the international bond market deteriorates, dependence on asset sales and domestic borrowing may increase, and funding terms may worsen.

The third scenario is a decline in manufacturing margins. The manufacturing business made a large earnings contribution in FY2026, but solar module and cell manufacturing is more exposed than generation PPAs to price competition, raw materials, policy, customer demand, and inventory. FY2027 guidance includes adjusted EBITDA from the manufacturing business of INR 10bn to INR 12bn, so underperformance here would affect consolidated adjusted EBITDA and market growth expectations. Whether manufacturing becomes a complement to the generation business or a source of higher volatility needs to be assessed over the next several quarters.

The fourth scenario is uncertainty around control and capital policy. The acquisition proposal involving Masdar ended in December 2025. The company emphasises support from existing major shareholders and its business outlook, but as a listed company, capital policy, strategic shareholder stakes, asset sales, minority stake sales, guarantee release conditions, and change-of-control provisions have different implications for each bond. For the 2028 notes, the focus is on the parent guarantor and maintenance of ownership in the joint issuers; for the 2031 notes, on the guarantees from ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited; and for the 2027 notes, on the credit quality of ReNew Power Private Limited itself.

Priority monitoring items include total revenue, power sales revenue, manufacturing revenue, adjusted EBITDA, CFe, finance costs, project completions, commissioned capacity, wind and solar PLF, receivable days, asset sales, external capital raising, debt maturities, and rating actions from FY2027 Q1 onward. By bond, the focus should be the balance, refinancing, and collateral maintenance of the 2027 notes; restricted-group DSCR, reserves, and distribution tests for the 2028 notes; and collateral coverage, guarantee release conditions, and recovery priority of intercompany loans for the 2031 notes.

14. Bond-by-bond investor protection and recovery paths

Investor protection for ReNew-related bonds is determined less by the label “secured” and more by which company is the obligor, which collateral supports which debt, and which guarantor is responsible to what extent. The closer the collateral is to specific project assets, the easier it is to analyse project risk, but the claim on the group as a whole becomes narrower. The closer the structure is to a group guarantee, the stronger the connection to group credit, but the collateral is more likely to be indirect or partial.

For the 2027 notes, the core protection is not a guarantee, but collateral and covenants. Collateral value, project operating status, receivables, account control, and enforcement procedures under Indian law determine recovery strength. The balance as of March 31, 2025 is disclosed as US$270mn, but the latest balance thereafter has not been verified in this report. Because these are near-term maturities, the focus is on the repayment plan, latest balance, collateral maintenance, and funding restrictions within ReNew Power Private Limited, rather than long-term business volatility.

Investor protection for the 2028 notes is closer to a structure that traps cash within a restricted group. The joint issuers form the restricted group, and each company’s project assets, related contracts, accounts, and share pledges are included in the collateral package. The parent guarantee is important, but it is necessary to examine the PPAs, generation volume, receivables, reserves, restricted payments, and additional debt capacity of the relevant 10 companies, rather than only consolidated ReNew revenue or EBITDA.

Investor protection for the 2031 notes is a combination of guarantees and collateral coverage. The guarantees from ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited strengthen the connection to group credit, but the collateral is an indirect structure through issuer accounts, intercompany loans / receivables, and specified assets, and is limited to fixed-asset collateral coverage of 0.5x and total collateral coverage of 1.0x. In particular, the conditions under which the ReNew Energy Global plc guarantee may be released are an important unverified term when considering the 2031 notes’ connection to upper-tier group credit.

15. Credit View and Monitoring Focus

ReNew’s current credit profile can be viewed as a mid-level non-investment-grade credit, supported by its scale as a large Indian renewable energy generation group, long-term contracts, and access to international capital markets, but constrained by high debt and ongoing capex. This view takes into account the company-disclosed Moody’s corporate rating of Ba2 and the Ba3 / BB- rating indications for the US dollar bonds or the 2031 notes. The direction is slightly more stable in the near term due to FY2026 results and the refinancing through the 2031 notes, but the pace of improvement is gradual, and a clear reduction in leverage is still likely to take time. The probability of rapid credit improvement is not high; conversely, if funding markets, generation volume, receivables, the manufacturing business, and refinancing terms were to deteriorate at the same time, downward pressure could build relatively quickly.

If this issuer is viewed only as a simple generation company, FY2026 growth and the stability of long-term contracts stand out. For bond investors, however, more important issues are the quality of operating cash flow, the size of investing cash flow, finance costs, dependence on asset sales, and the legal structure of each bond. FY2026 adjusted EBITDA increased, but finance costs also increased, and net interest-bearing debt remains large. CFe improved, but it should not be treated as free cash available to fully fund growth investment.

By bond, the 2027 notes require analysis of the balance between near-term maturity and the absence of guarantees. The group’s refinancing record and liquidity are supportive, but legally the notes rely on SECI II-related collateral and the credit of ReNew Power Private Limited itself. The 2028 notes should be analysed as restricted-group-style project-company pool notes, with a focus on the cash flow, DSCR, reserves, collateral, and parent guarantee relating to the relevant project-company group. The 2031 notes have a stronger connection to group credit through guarantees from ReNew Energy Global plc and ReNew Private Limited, but collateral is partial, and because the conditions under which the ReNew Energy Global plc guarantee may be released remain unverified, investors should not over-rely on the permanence of that guarantee.

The central investment question is whether ReNew can continue capacity additions in FY2027 while controlling receivables, maintaining manufacturing margins, and managing finance costs and maturities without relying too heavily on asset sales. In the near term, the repayment or refinancing of the 2027 notes should be checked first, followed by the debt structure after the 2031 issuance, and then generation volume, receivables, and CFe from FY2027 Q1 onward. The rating trajectory will likely depend less on simple capacity growth and more on leverage, funding terms, offtaker collection, and transparency of bond structures.

16. Short Summary & Conclusion

ReNew is one of India’s leading renewable energy generation groups, with long-term contracted generation assets, a manufacturing business, and access to the international bond market. At the same time, high debt and ongoing capex constrain its credit profile. The 2027, 2028, and 2031 notes differ materially in issuer, guarantee, and collateral, and should not be assessed together simply as the same ReNew group debt. The credit view is slightly more stable in the near term, but leverage reduction, receivable management, sustainability of the manufacturing business, and refinancing terms still need to be monitored.

17. Sources

Primary sources used:

• ReNew Energy Global plc, Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, filed July 30, 2025.
  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1848763/000095017025099896/rnw-20250331.htm
• ReNew Energy Global plc, Form 6-K and Exhibit 99.1, Q4 FY26 and FY26 Financial Results, furnished May 18, 2026.
  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1848763/000119312526227847/rnw_6k_-_q4fy26.htm
• ReNew Energy Global plc, Exhibit 99.1, Q4 FY26 and FY26 Financial Results, May 18, 2026.
  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1848763/000119312526227847/rnw-ex99_1.htm
• ReNew Energy Global plc, Form 6-K, 2031 green bond closing announcement, furnished January 26, 2026.
  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1848763/000119312526021737/6k_bond_closure.htm
• ReNew Wind Energy AP2 Private Limited and other co-issuers, Indenture for 4.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2028, SEC Exhibit 10.19.
  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1848763/000119312521164239/d102215dex1019.htm
• India International Exchange (IFSC) Limited, listing circular for ReNew Treasury IFSC Private Limited 6.50% Senior Secured Bonds due 2031, February 4, 2026.
  https://www.indiainx.com/
• Singapore Exchange prospectus circular, ReNew Power Private Limited US$450,000,000 5.875% Senior Secured Notes Due 2027, offering memorandum dated January 21, 2020.
  https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/prospectus-circulars/37329
• Singapore Exchange debt listing confirmation, ReNew Power Private Limited US$450,000,000 5.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2027.
  https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/HVGN0TQZ6W83VDZ9/6bca1c6180cefebd66ba38a8dad0f51604fba24b116aef3abc49f821682ba58e
• ReNew Energy Global plc, Form 6-K, Masdar withdrawal and termination of proposed acquisition discussions, furnished December 15, 2025.
  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1848763/000119312525318620/6k_masdar.htm

18. Unverified / Pending

• The full SGX offering memorandum for the 2027 notes was reviewed on the public page, but could not be saved locally due to access restrictions. The timing of collateral creation, detailed enforcement mechanics, and current collateral value are unverified.
• Project-by-project DSCR, reserve balances, latest balance, receivables, and generation volume for the 2028 notes are unverified.
• The guarantee release conditions, detailed list of specified collateral assets, and breakdown of intercompany loans by ultimate borrower for the 2031 notes are unverified.
• The full text of the latest rating-agency press releases has not been obtained, and rating levels are based on company disclosures and the India INX listing notice.
• The audited FY2026 annual report had not been reviewed as of the preparation date of this report. FY2026 figures are based on the company’s results release dated May 18, 2026.
• Market prices, yields, spreads, and relative value of each bond have not been reviewed in this report.