Adani Renewable Energy (RJ) Limited (ARENRJ)

Based on public information through September 2025, the current credit quality is appropriately assessed as that of a project bond at the boundary between low investment grade and upper high yield. The credit trajectory appears closer to stable than to rapid deterioration, based on DSCR, account balances, scheduled amortisation and AGEL’s operating platform as of that date. However, because FY2026 RG II direct financials, current outstanding balance, PPA-level collection and hedge details have not been verified, investors should not conclude that the credit quality level or direction is unlikely to change quickly. The view should be updated relatively promptly when new information becomes available.

The core credit support is the contractual cash flow of the 570MW solar asset pool. Long-term PPAs, a sovereign PPA ratio of 72.54%, DSCR of 2.53x, FFO/net debt of 20.2%, DSRA, scheduled amortisation, collateral and cross-guarantees provide clearer project-finance protections than an ordinary unsecured corporate bond. In particular, the semi-annual reduction of principal lowers future bullet refinancing risk.

At the same time, investors’ risk derives from dependence on restricted-group cash flow rather than AGEL parent credit. There is no parent guarantee and no direct recourse to AGEL or the sponsor, so PPA collection, generation volume, DSCR, DSRA, collateral enforceability and hedging are fundamental. AGEL’s FY2026 results are useful as supplementary information for assessing the sponsor’s operating capability and market access, but they are not the direct source of repayment for the ARENRJ bond.