Guotai Haitong Securities Co. Ltd. (GTJA_GUOTJU)

At present, Guotai Haitong’s credit strength can be assessed as a high-ranking market-based financial credit within China’s securities sector, supported by expected support from Shanghai municipal government-related shareholders and its scale as one of China’s largest securities firms. In the international rating context, public information indicates investment-grade ratings at the S&P BBB+ and Moody’s Baa1 level, while detailed reports, support notching, and rating triggers remain unconfirmed. The credit direction appears stable to modestly positive, supported by the expanded post-merger operating base and the improvement in 1Q2026 profit after deducting non-recurring items. However, a same-scope three-year pro forma comparison of the two legacy companies has not been obtained, and the sustainability of integration benefits and expansion of market-based risks still need to be assessed. The probability of rapid near-term credit deterioration is not high, but if China capital-market stress, deterioration in repo, collateral and short-term funding conditions, merger-integration setbacks, changes in expected support or rating tone, and serious regulatory or conduct events coincide, funding conditions and spreads could react before earnings do.

The credit profile is supported by end-2025 total assets of RMB2.114tn, equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company of RMB330.417bn, end-March 2026 parent-company net capital of RMB191.598bn, LCR of 282.49%, NSFR of 148.18%, Shanghai municipal government-related shareholders, substantial earnings power in wealth management and institutional and trading, and integrated capabilities spanning investment banking, asset management, finance leasing, and overseas businesses. These factors place Guotai Haitong clearly above ordinary small and midsize securities firms and support domestic and offshore market access and investor confidence.

At the same time, the main constraints are volatility as a market-based financial institution and post-merger execution risk. 2025 profit included acquisition-related gains, and the 2024 comparison is based on the former Guotai Junan. Operating income and profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were strong in 1Q2026, but reported net profit declined because of the reversal of negative goodwill in the prior year. The credit view therefore needs to evaluate the post-merger absolute scale and regulatory buffers while carefully reviewing normalised earnings, risk volume, funding, and integration progress.