Rakuten Group (RAKUTN)

Rakuten Group is neither a simple domestic e-commerce company, nor a simple telecom operator, nor a simple fintech holding company. It is one of Japan's most distinctive digital, fintech, and mobile conglomerates. From a credit perspective, the central issue for the issuer is how it manages holding company-level funding pressure and capital consumption in the mobile business, while retaining strong fintech assets and a large membership base. As of May 2, 2026, the latest confirmed full-year results disclosure was the FY2025 results released on February 12, 2026; the latest important structural event was the resumption of discussions on fintech business reorganization on February 25, 2026; and Q1 2026 results had not yet been disclosed. This timing matters: the current credit view is at the stage of confirming the FY2025 improvement while assessing whether that improvement can be sustained into FY2026.

FY2025 was a year that clearly improved the credit view on Rakuten. Consolidated revenue was JPY 2,496.6 billion, IFRS operating profit was JPY 14.4 billion, Non-GAAP operating profit was JPY 106.3 billion, and EBITDA was JPY 435.9 billion, with the improvement in mobile earnings making a significant contribution to consolidated profitability. In particular, Rakuten Mobile achieving positive full-year EBITDA on a standalone basis for the first time, the group securing IFRS operating profit on a consolidated basis for a second consecutive year, re-accessing the domestic retail bond market in July 2025, and issuing domestic perpetual subordinated bonds in October 2025 all reduced the probability of the scenario that the market had strongly feared in 2023–2024: mobile would continue consuming cash and the holding company's market access would narrow.

That said, this does not mean Rakuten can now be re-rated as a stable investment-grade holdco. FY2025 net loss attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 177.9 billion, and the net loss remains heavy relative to the thin IFRS operating profit. Mobile turned positive on an EBITDA basis, but the Mobile segment still posted a Non-GAAP operating loss of JPY 161.8 billion, and Rakuten Mobile on a standalone basis also posted a Non-GAAP operating loss of JPY 166.0 billion. In addition, network-related capex of more than JPY 200 billion is planned for FY2026, and it will still take time before the mobile business reaches accounting profitability or sufficiently restrains capital consumption. Therefore, the main issue in Rakuten credit is not "whether it has become profitable," but "to what extent mobile improvement actually translates into improved debt repayment capacity at the holding company."