Adani Green Energy Restricted Group 2 (ADGREG)

Based on disclosed information, the current credit level is best viewed as a project-finance-type credit positioned from low investment grade to the upper crossover area. The direction is stable for now, considering DSCR of 2.56x, PLCR of 2.00x, Moody's revision to Stable, and S&P/Fitch’s Stable outlooks as of end-September 2025. The probability of rapid credit deterioration does not appear high at present, but if state DISCOM collections, generation, hedging, Adani group legal headlines, and covenant changes overlap, the view may need to be revised downward in a relatively short period.

The credit assessment should be separated from AGEL parent’s growth story. RG2’s 570MW of operating solar assets, long-term PPAs, high share of centrally related offtakers, semiannual amortization, DSRA, cash-flow waterfall, and mutual guarantees make the repayment source clearer than AGEL’s consolidated assets under construction or HoldCo debt. In particular, the structure in which the issuers directly own assets and capture cash flow within the restricted group is materially different from an unsecured bond of a growth company. However, the security package, current covenants, and enforcement recovery value remain additional confirmation items, and structural protection should not be equated with certainty of principal recovery.

At the same time, RG2 should not be treated as sovereign-quality or as a fully risk-insulated bond. Although SECI/NTPC’s share is high, exposure remains to state distribution companies such as Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company, and S&P also treats this as a rating constraint. Generation was slightly below P90 for the 12 months ended September 2025, and power-sales revenue and operating cash flow declined year on year. Hedging is described as 100%, but cost and effectiveness need to be checked continuously over the long period to 2039.