AVIC International Leasing Co Ltd (AVIILC)

In 2025, operating revenue declined to RMB8.316bn and net profit to RMB1.554bn, while consolidated interest-bearing debt was RMB96.589bn and debt due within one year was RMB36.123bn. AVICIL’s bonds are not explicitly government-guaranteed; they are debt of a finance leasing company supported by expected AVIC Group support. Going forward, the key monitoring items are support expectations, short-term refinancing, asset quality in equipment and public utilities, and the trajectory of restricted assets of RMB45.383bn.

The current credit level can reasonably be framed as domestic AAA-equivalent market access onshore and a Fitch BBB+-equivalent support-driven credit offshore. The direction is stable for now, but in business terms, revenue and asset scale are shrinking, and the standalone credit profile is somewhat weaker. The likelihood of a sudden change is not high under normal conditions, but it would rise quickly if expected AVIC Group support, short-term refinancing, asset quality or restricted assets deteriorate at the same time.

At the same time, the company should not be treated as low-risk government-guaranteed debt. In 2025, revenue declined, profit declined, assets contracted and equity fell simultaneously. Consolidated interest-bearing debt is large at RMB96.589bn, debt due within one year is RMB36.123bn, and cash alone does not provide sufficient coverage. Restricted assets reached RMB45.383bn, and unsecured creditors should recognise structural subordination. The credit is stable as long as expected support is maintained, but because that support is not a legal guarantee, checks on issuer asset quality, liquidity, collateralisation and individual bond structures are essential.

The delisting of AVIC Industry-Finance and the pledges and freezes over AVICIL shares do not unilaterally worsen the credit profile. In some respects, the link with AVIC Group has become more direct, and Fitch also judged that support willingness would be maintained and removed the RWN. However, these events show that the support channel is not simple and that the market may react sensitively to intermediate-parent events. The most important issue going forward is how AVIC Group positions AVICIL as a group financial function and supports it in terms of funding and capital.