Greenko Power II Limited / Restricted Group IV (GRNKEN)

Based on public information, the current credit quality of Greenko Power II / Restricted Group IV is best viewed as a contracted Indian renewable restricted-group credit that was assessed at issuance as high-yield, at Ba1 / BB. Some financial metrics may appear more consistent with low investment-grade levels, but because the latest rating reports, DSCR/DSRA, current balance, MCS track record, and refinancing terms are not confirmed, the credit should not be treated as investment-grade in international rating terms. Looking only at the improvement in revenue and EBITDA in 1H FY2026, the credit direction appears stable to modestly improving in the near term. However, given 2028 refinancing, receivables, and the parent’s large investments, it is not yet possible to conclude that the improvement is sustainable. The probability of rapid credit deterioration does not appear high as long as normal operations and market access continue, but the view could deteriorate relatively quickly if a closed refinancing market, worsening receivables collection, lower generation, and a guarantor downgrade coincide.

The supports for the credit are operational renewable assets, long-term PPAs, high EBITDA margins, the parent guarantee, Indian NCD collateral, and mandatory amortization. Greenko Power II is not merely a paper company; it is an issuance SPV that connects RG IV’s generation asset cash flow to the US dollar bond, and the September 2025 financials show positive operating cash flow. Half-year EBITDA sufficiently exceeds finance cost, indicating a certain buffer for ordinary near-term interest payments.

However, confidence in this credit view is lower than for a typical listed operating company. This is because current balances, MCS amortization, DSCR, DSRA, cash trap, hedging, PPA-level collections, and waiver history cannot be sufficiently confirmed from public information alone. In particular, MCS amortization is a credit protection if it proceeds as scheduled, but because non-payment is not a Default, investors need to confirm the actual reduction in principal. The size of receivables also shows the time lag before generation revenue is converted into cash, so simple EBITDA coverage should not be treated as sufficient comfort.