SoftBank Group (SOFTBK)

Senior-bond credit remains maintainable, but SBG should not be assessed as a telecom-bond-type stable credit; it should be viewed as an asset-value-supported BB+ holding company with event risk. The next points to confirm are funding for the remaining OpenAI investment, repayment and term-out of the bridge, the method of maintaining LTV below 25%, and whether secured borrowings expand further.

As of May 13, 2026, SBG’s credit quality has sufficient near-term repayment capacity and is supported by a thicker asset base than an ordinary BB-rated issuer. The credit direction improved somewhat when viewed only from the static end-March 2026 position, because FY2025 full-year materials confirmed NAV of JPY 40.1 trillion, LTV of 17.0%, and a cash position of JPY 3.5 trillion. However, that improvement has not suddenly transformed the credit into a stable profile. Given the additional OpenAI investment after April 2026, the bridge balance of USD 17.5 billion as of May 13, 2026, secured financing, Arm’s share price, and foreign-currency bond markets, the credit view can still move up or down over a short period. SBG should therefore not be viewed as a “weak credit,” but neither is it a telecom-type stable credit; it should be treated as an event-sensitive holding-company credit supported by asset value and market access.

The credit-supportive factors are clear. Arm, SoftBank Corp., PayPay, OpenAI, and the SVF portfolio provide an asset-value cushion that ordinary high-yield issuers do not have. In FY2025, the value of holdings increased, led by Arm and OpenAI, and LTV improved to 17.0%. Funding flexibility is also strong, as SBG can combine domestic yen bond markets, bank groups, foreign-currency bond markets, hybrids, asset sales, and share-backed loans. The track record of asset sales and liquidity events related to T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NVIDIA, and PayPay demonstrates an ability to monetize assets when needed and manage LTV.

However, credit stability is lower than before. OpenAI investment is becoming central to SBG’s enterprise value and credit assessment, and valuation changes in unlisted AI assets can materially move NAV, profit, and LTV. OpenAI’s fair value of USD 79.6 billion and cumulative investment gain of USD 45.0 billion as of end-March 2026 significantly lifted SBG’s asset value, but they do not mean immediate liquidity equivalent to listed shares. After completion of the 2026 additional investment, cumulative OpenAI investment amount is expected to reach approximately USD 64.6 billion, creating not only asset-value upside but also additional funding needs, downside valuation risk, and monetization uncertainty. The USD 40.0 billion bridge demonstrates the strength of bank access, but it is a large short-term obligation maturing in March 2027, and replacement with long-term funding during 2026 is central to the credit assessment. The April 2026 foreign-currency bond issuance and USD 2.5 billion repayment were progress on term-out, but not large enough to eliminate the USD 17.5 billion balance, and foreign-currency bond coupons are also high.